290061 UE Methods for analysing disaster risk assessment (2020W)

The course introduces practical GIS-based exercises on quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment, and how the risk components (hazards, elements-at-risk and vulnerability) can be mapped and quantified, and how risk information can be used in risk reduction planning. The main focus of course is on a large case study of a multi-hazard area in an island setting, which is threatened by flooding, debris flows, landslides and tsunamis. Participants will make a quantitative analysis of how risk changes, and how information on changing risk is used in decision making for disaster risk reduction. The course first analyzes the hazard component. Elements-at-risk and their main characteristics (e.g. land use, type, value, population) are evaluated and the way in which they might change over time. Damage functions are evaluated using different element-at-risk types (land parcels and buildings). Loss estimation is done for the hazards, return periods, including also the spatial probability for hazards without intensity information. Subsequently the risk is calculated using the Dutch method, resulting in Average Annual Loss. Various approaches for risk reduction planning are analyzed, and the way these change the risk components. Losses and risk are calculated as well as the risk reduction. Cost benefit analysis is carried out to define which alternative is best. Several future scenarios are presented in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the risk is calculated for various future years. At the end of the course the participants select a specialization topic and carry out a final project in which they investigate one specific aspect of the methodology. The course is based on a case study that is made for an open course GIS (ILWIS 3.8.5) using scripts for the analysis.

This course is closely linked with the course 290057 VU Multi-hazard risk assessment (2020W), which is given on the same day in the afternoon, and which contains the theory part of the exercises. Therefore, participants are strongly advised to also follow that course.