040039 UK Applied Macroeconomics (BA) (2023W)

Lecture slides

Background reading: Hamilton (1994). Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press.
Ramey (2016). Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation, Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.

Further material (if interested, not required!!)

Methodology:

Jorda (2005). Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections. The American Economic Review, 95(1):161–182.

Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica 48(1), 1–48

Fiscal Policy: Government Spending

Auerbach, A. J. and Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012b). Measuring the output responses to fiscal policy. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2):1–27

Auerbach, A. J. and Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012a). Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion. In Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63–98. Uni- versity of Chicago press.
Barro, R. J. and Redlick, C. J. (2011). Macroeconomic effects from government purchases and taxes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(1):51–102.

Blanchard, O. and Perotti, R. (2002). An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4):1329–1368.

Ramey, V. A. (2011). Identifying government spending shocks: it’s all in the timing. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(1):1–50.

Ramey, V. A. and Zubairy, S. (2016). Government spending multipliers in good times and in bad: evidence from US historical data. Journal of Political Econ-omy, forthcoming.

Mountford, A. & Uhlig, H. (2009). What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol 24(6), pages 960-992.

Fiscal Policy: Tax Changes

Blanchard, O. and Perotti, R. (2002). An empirical characterization of the dy- namic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4):1329–1368.

Cloyne, J. (2013). Discretionary tax changes and the macroeconomy: new narrative evidence from the United Kingdom. The American Economic Review, 103(4):1507–1528.

Mertens, K. and Ravn, M. O. (2013). The dynamic effects of personal and corpo- rate income tax changes in the United States. The American Economic Review, 103(4):1212–1247.

Mertens, K. and Ravn, M. O. (2014). A reconciliation of SVAR and narrative estimates of tax multipliers. Journal of Monetary Economics, 68:S1–S19.

Perotti, R. (2012). The effects of tax shocks on output: not so large, but not small either. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2):214–237.

Romer, C. D. and Romer, D. H. (2010). The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks. The American Economic Review, 100:763–801.

Mountford, A. & Uhlig, H. (2009). What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol 24(6), pages 960-992.
Monetary Policy

Cloyne, J. and Huertgen, P. (2016). The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 8(4):75–102.

Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. Time-varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy. Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.

Romer, C., and D. Romer. (1994). A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications, American Economic Review 94 (4): 1055–84, 2004

Tenreyro, S. and G. Thwaites. (2016). Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 8(4): 43-74

Uhlig, H. What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March 2005