Universität Wien FIND

040064 UK Forecasting (MA) (2014W)

4.00 ECTS (2.00 SWS), SPL 4 - Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Prüfungsimmanente Lehrveranstaltung

Details

max. 50 Teilnehmer*innen
Sprache: Englisch

Lehrende

Termine (iCal) - nächster Termin ist mit N markiert

Dienstag 07.10. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 14.10. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 21.10. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 28.10. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 04.11. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 11.11. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 18.11. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 25.11. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 02.12. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 09.12. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 16.12. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 13.01. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 20.01. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß
Dienstag 27.01. 13:15 - 14:45 Hörsaal 5 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 Erdgeschoß

Information

Ziele, Inhalte und Methode der Lehrveranstaltung

The course aims at an understanding of currently used techniques for prediction in empirical economics. It focuses on the following topics:

(1) General introduction (Aims of forecasting, types of forecasts: technical extrapolation, time-series forecasts, theory- and model-based forecasts)
(2) Technical model-free extrapolation (exponential smoothing, ad-hoc prediction etc.)
(3) Univariate time-series techniques (one variable on its own)
(4) Multivariate time-series techniques (several variables together: vector autoregressions, cointegration)
(5) Forecasting using econometric models
(6) Criteria for assessing forecasting accuracy

Art der Leistungskontrolle und erlaubte Hilfsmittel

A written test (40% weight) and a lesser empirical forecasting project (60%); a positive grade on the course requires taking part in the test and at least 50% of the maximum achievable score.

Mindestanforderungen und Beurteilungsmaßstab

Participants are familiar with the main procedures that are currently used in empirical economic forecasting and also with the main issues of the related research field

Prüfungsstoff

Lectures and a small empirical project that is elaborated by participants, preferably in small groups of up to three participants

Literatur

- Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry: Forecasting Economic Time Series. Cambridge University Press.
- Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry: Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series. Cambridge University Press.
- Michael P. Clements: Evaluating Econometric Forecasts of Economic and Financial Variables. Palgrave-Macmillan.
- Philip H. Franses, Dick van Dijk, Anne Opschoor: Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting. Cambridge University Press.
- Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos: Forecasting: principles and practice. On-line open access.

Zuordnung im Vorlesungsverzeichnis

Letzte Änderung: Fr 31.08.2018 08:47