040238 UK The History of Economics as Conjectures and Refutations (BA) (2021W)

Aims: to introduce students to different business cycle theories developed in the 19th and 20th century, and the epistemological and methodological problems of describing and evaluating the performance of different theories . Content: Issues such as the role and importance of aggregate demand (Lauderdale, Malthus, Hobson), confidence and credit (J.S. Mill, J. Mills, Marshall) capital and investment (Tugan-Baranovsky, Spiethoff, Schumpeter, Cassel, Robertson) investment demand and interest rate (Wicksell, Fisher, Keynes), impulse and propagation (Aftalion, Pigou, Clark), monetary disequilibrium (Hawtrey, Hayek, Friedman), and sequences, leads and lags (Mitchell) will be discussed. Much emphasis will be placed on Keynesian, and Monetarist theories as well as on the Rational Expectations Model, Real Business Cycle Models and New Keynesian Models. In particular epistemological and methodological problems regarding the description of the performance of different business cycle theories will be discussed. Diligent students will learn to make sense of and evaluate the historical background as well as the performance of theories, the main criticisms, and later developments of those controversies. Method: teaching consists of one unbroken 90-minute seminar; discussion of different text passages which students have to prepare on the basis of questions distributed in advance for every meeting.