Universität Wien

234001 SE Population Forecasting (2022W)

4.00 ECTS (2.00 SWS), SPL 23 - Soziologie
Prüfungsimmanente Lehrveranstaltung
VOR-ORT

An/Abmeldung

Hinweis: Ihr Anmeldezeitpunkt innerhalb der Frist hat keine Auswirkungen auf die Platzvergabe (kein "first come, first served").

Details

max. 20 Teilnehmer*innen
Sprache: Englisch

Lehrende

Termine (iCal) - nächster Termin ist mit N markiert

On the last date the course takes place at UZA IIAdress: Josef Holaubek-Platz 2, 1090 WienMetro: Linie U4 und U6 (Station Spittelau)Tram: Linie D (Haltestelle Lichtenwerder Platz)Bus: Linien 35A/37A (Haltestelle Lichtenwerder Platz

  • Mittwoch 05.10. 09:45 - 13:00 PC-Seminarraum 1 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Untergeschoß
  • Mittwoch 12.10. 09:45 - 13:00 PC-Seminarraum 1 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Untergeschoß
  • Mittwoch 19.10. 09:45 - 13:00 PC-Seminarraum 1 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Untergeschoß
  • Mittwoch 09.11. 09:45 - 13:00 PC-Seminarraum 2 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Untergeschoß
  • Mittwoch 16.11. 09:45 - 13:00 PC-Seminarraum 1 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Untergeschoß
  • Mittwoch 23.11. 09:45 - 13:00 EDV-Raum 4 2C502 5.OG UZA II

Information

Ziele, Inhalte und Methode der Lehrveranstaltung

This course is dedicated to population forecasting based on the R Statistical Software. Using simple examples from R, participants will first learn common techniques of data visualization that will proof helpful during the remainder of the course. After that, different prognostic techniques and their applications will be introduced. An essential aspect of the class will be the development of scenarios, which is key for any meaningful future projection. The main objective of the course is to improve the participants’ understanding of the evolution of population-based processes.

Art der Leistungskontrolle und erlaubte Hilfsmittel

Achievement of that goal will be assessed based on three criteria.

1. (Home) exercises (30%); to be completed partly in class, partly at home.
2. Population projections by age and sex to be submitted as a functioning R-code (50%). The goal of this task is to roughly replicate the results according to the UN World Population Prospects.
3. Classroom participation (20%)

Mindestanforderungen und Beurteilungsmaßstab

Participation is obligatory. Students may miss at most one class.
Grades will be based on the three tasks (exercises, projection code, participation)
All three are obligatory.

Prüfungsstoff

Literatur

Lutz, W., J. W. Vaupel, D. A. Ahlburg (1998): Frontiers of Population Forecasting. A Supplement to Population and Development Review, 1998, 24.

Keilman, N. W. (1990): Uncertanity in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. NIDI Working Paper. Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse 1990.

Keyfitz, N. The Limits of Population Forecasting. Population and Development Review, 1981, 7, 579-593.

O'Neill, Brian C., et al. "A guide to global population projections." Demographic Research 4 (2001): 203-288.

Zuordnung im Vorlesungsverzeichnis

Letzte Änderung: Mo 03.10.2022 11:51