290064 PS "Multi-State"-Bevölkerungsprojektionen - Methodologie, Anwendung, Interpretation (2012S)
(in englischer Sprache)
Prüfungsimmanente Lehrveranstaltung
Labels
FR wtl. von 16.03.2012 bis 29.06.2012 09.00-12.00 Ort: Computerkartographie Geographie NIG 1.OG (MM-Labor)
Details
Information
Ziele, Inhalte und Methode der Lehrveranstaltung
Art der Leistungskontrolle und erlaubte Hilfsmittel
The students will present the projections they have realized during a 30 minutes session (20 minutes for presentation and 10 minutes for comments). They will write an essay on the projections in a 5-10 pages document. Presentation and essay will each count for half of the final mark.
Mindestanforderungen und Beurteilungsmaßstab
The students will learn the techniques to do population projections by levels of education. This in turn can be applied to do ¿simple¿ population projections and any other multistate population projections (by geographical area, ethnicity, ecological zone, etc.).
Prüfungsstoff
The course will comprehend a mixture of formal teaching and empirical applications. The projections use the cohort component method extended for multiple states i.e. education categories. The students will use the PDE Projections software that was developed at IIASA for multi-state population projections modeling. The software can be downloaded free of charge from the IIASA website at: www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/POP/pub/software.html
Literatur
The multi state technique is best explained in three volumes:
- Rogers, A. 1975. Introduction to multiregional mathematical demography. New York, NY: John Wiley, 203 p.
- Keyfitz, N. 1985. Applied mathematical demography, 2nd Edition. New York, NY; Berlin, Germany: Springer Verlag, 441 p.
- Lutz, W, A Goujon, and G Doblhammer-Reiter. 1998. Demographic dimensions in forecasting: Adding education to age and sex; 42¿58 pp. In: Lutz, W, JW Vaupel, and DA Ahlburg (Eds.). Frontiers of population forecasting. A supplement to Population and Development Review, 24. New York, NY: Population Council.
Some of the applied work using the multistate technique for population and education projections:
- Lutz, W (Ed). 1994. Population, development, environment: Understanding their interactions in Mauritius. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer Verlag, 400 p. [grounding publications for future applications]
- Goujon, A and A Wils. 1996. The Importance of education in future population, global trends and case studies on Cape Verde, Sudan, and Tunisia. IIASA Working Paper WP-96-138. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 33 p. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/WP-96-138.pdf
- Yousif, HM, A Goujon, and W Lutz. 1996. Future population and education trends in the countries of North Africa. Research Report, RR-96-11, 89 p. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/RR-96-011.pdf
- Goujon, A. 1997. Population and education prospects in the Western Mediterranean region: Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. IIASA Interim Report IR-97-046. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 62 p. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-97-046.pdf
- Goujon, A, I Kohler, and W Lutz. 2000. Future population and education trends: Scenarios to 2030 by socioecological region; 141¿173 pp. In: Lutz, W, L Prieto, and W Sanderson (Eds). Population, development, and environment on the Yucatan Peninsula: From Ancient Maya to 2030. IIASA Research Report RR-00-14. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/RR-00-014.pdf
- Lutz, W, and A Goujon. 2001. The world's changing human capital stock: Multi-state population projections by educational attainment. Population and Development Review, 272, 323¿339 pp. New York, NY: Population Council.
- Cao G-Y. 2000. The Future Population of China: Prospects to 2045 by Place of Residence and by Level of Education. IIASA Interim Report IR-00-026. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 44 p. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-00-026.pdf
- Goujon, A and K McNay. 2003. Projecting the Educational Composition of the Population of India: Selected State-Level Perspectives. Applied Population and Policy 1 (1): 25-35.].
- Lutz, W, A Goujon, A Wils. 2008. The Population dynamics of human capital accumulation. In: Prskawetz, A, DE Bloom, W Lutz (eds.) Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Growth. A supplement to Population and Development Review, Volume 34: pp. 149-187.
- Goujon, A, S K.C. 2008. The Past and Future of Human Capital in South-East Asia: From 1970 to 2030. Asian Population Studies, 4: (1) pp 31-56.
- Rogers, A. 1975. Introduction to multiregional mathematical demography. New York, NY: John Wiley, 203 p.
- Keyfitz, N. 1985. Applied mathematical demography, 2nd Edition. New York, NY; Berlin, Germany: Springer Verlag, 441 p.
- Lutz, W, A Goujon, and G Doblhammer-Reiter. 1998. Demographic dimensions in forecasting: Adding education to age and sex; 42¿58 pp. In: Lutz, W, JW Vaupel, and DA Ahlburg (Eds.). Frontiers of population forecasting. A supplement to Population and Development Review, 24. New York, NY: Population Council.
Some of the applied work using the multistate technique for population and education projections:
- Lutz, W (Ed). 1994. Population, development, environment: Understanding their interactions in Mauritius. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer Verlag, 400 p. [grounding publications for future applications]
- Goujon, A and A Wils. 1996. The Importance of education in future population, global trends and case studies on Cape Verde, Sudan, and Tunisia. IIASA Working Paper WP-96-138. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 33 p. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/WP-96-138.pdf
- Yousif, HM, A Goujon, and W Lutz. 1996. Future population and education trends in the countries of North Africa. Research Report, RR-96-11, 89 p. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/RR-96-011.pdf
- Goujon, A. 1997. Population and education prospects in the Western Mediterranean region: Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. IIASA Interim Report IR-97-046. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 62 p. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-97-046.pdf
- Goujon, A, I Kohler, and W Lutz. 2000. Future population and education trends: Scenarios to 2030 by socioecological region; 141¿173 pp. In: Lutz, W, L Prieto, and W Sanderson (Eds). Population, development, and environment on the Yucatan Peninsula: From Ancient Maya to 2030. IIASA Research Report RR-00-14. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/RR-00-014.pdf
- Lutz, W, and A Goujon. 2001. The world's changing human capital stock: Multi-state population projections by educational attainment. Population and Development Review, 272, 323¿339 pp. New York, NY: Population Council.
- Cao G-Y. 2000. The Future Population of China: Prospects to 2045 by Place of Residence and by Level of Education. IIASA Interim Report IR-00-026. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 44 p. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-00-026.pdf
- Goujon, A and K McNay. 2003. Projecting the Educational Composition of the Population of India: Selected State-Level Perspectives. Applied Population and Policy 1 (1): 25-35.].
- Lutz, W, A Goujon, A Wils. 2008. The Population dynamics of human capital accumulation. In: Prskawetz, A, DE Bloom, W Lutz (eds.) Population Aging, Human Capital Accumulation, and Productivity Growth. A supplement to Population and Development Review, Volume 34: pp. 149-187.
- Goujon, A, S K.C. 2008. The Past and Future of Human Capital in South-East Asia: From 1970 to 2030. Asian Population Studies, 4: (1) pp 31-56.
Zuordnung im Vorlesungsverzeichnis
(MG-S4-PI.m) (MG-W4-PI) (Ta2, Ta11) (Td-S2-I.d, Td-S2-III.h) (Rd-W1)
Letzte Änderung: Fr 31.08.2018 08:56
In the next sessions, the students will be taught all the data manipulation necessary to produce population projections by level of education. Each student will choose a country (from a list of countries provided by the lecturer) and implement projections including the following:
- Data mining for the base-year estimates (population, fertility, mortality, migration, and transition) by age, sex and levels of educational attainment.
- Scenario definition and implementation into the PDE
- Discussion of results.