040064 UK Forecasting (MA) (2016W)
Continuous assessment of course work
Labels
Registration/Deregistration
Note: The time of your registration within the registration period has no effect on the allocation of places (no first come, first served).
- Registration is open from Mo 12.09.2016 09:00 to Th 22.09.2016 14:00
- Deregistration possible until Fr 14.10.2016 14:00
Details
max. 50 participants
Language: English
Lecturers
Classes (iCal) - next class is marked with N
Tuesday
04.10.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
11.10.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
18.10.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
25.10.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
08.11.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
15.11.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
22.11.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
29.11.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
06.12.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
13.12.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
10.01.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
17.01.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
24.01.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Tuesday
31.01.
08:00 - 09:30
Hörsaal 9 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Stock
Information
Aims, contents and method of the course
Assessment and permitted materials
A written closed-book test (40% weight) and a lesser empirical forecasting project (60%); a positive grade on the course requires taking part in the test and at least 50% of the maximum achievable score.
Minimum requirements and assessment criteria
Participants are familiar with the main procedures that are currently used in empirical economic forecasting and also with the main issues of the related research field
Examination topics
Lectures and a small empirical project that is elaborated by participants, preferably in small groups of up to three participants
Reading list
- Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry: Forecasting Economic Time Series. Cambridge University Press.
- Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry: Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series. Cambridge University Press.
- Michael P. Clements: Evaluating Econometric Forecasts of Economic and Financial Variables. Palgrave-Macmillan.
- Philip H. Franses, Dick van Dijk, Anne Opschoor: Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting. Cambridge University Press.
- Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos: Forecasting: principles and practice. On-line open access.
- Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry: Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series. Cambridge University Press.
- Michael P. Clements: Evaluating Econometric Forecasts of Economic and Financial Variables. Palgrave-Macmillan.
- Philip H. Franses, Dick van Dijk, Anne Opschoor: Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting. Cambridge University Press.
- Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos: Forecasting: principles and practice. On-line open access.
Association in the course directory
Last modified: Mo 07.09.2020 15:28
(2) Technical model-free extrapolation (exponential smoothing, ad-hoc prediction etc.)
(3) Univariate time-series techniques (one variable on its own)
(4) Multivariate time-series techniques (several variables together: vector autoregressions, cointegration)
(5) Forecasting using econometric models
(6) Criteria for assessing forecasting accuracy