150135 VU Strategic Gaming: The South China Sea Dispute (2024S)

In the South China Sea, Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam dispute about overlapping territorial and sovereignty claims. Being supposedly rich in oil, gas and mineral resources and fish, these nations claim “islands”, reefs and rocks. However, most claims are legally and politically contested, notably the so-called nine-dash or U-line claimed both by Beijing and Taipei which covers about 90 percent of the South China Sea. However, China does not comply with the 2016 award of the Permanent Court of Arbitration which rejects the legal base of the nine-dash line under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

As the South China Sea is a globally important sea line of communication, outside actors such as the US, Japan, India and the European Union have a strategic interest in maritime security, further complicating the overall security situation. The US responds to China’s land reclamation activities and the militarization of its artificial islands with dispatching its navy and regularly conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to uphold international law. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China have so far failed to draft the envisioned regional Code of Conduct to mitigate the territorial disputes. ASEAN, however, is not engaged in concrete talks to resolve the disputes, as China only negotiates on a bilateral level with the Southeast Asian claimant states.

This course is a negotiation simulation, simulating a real-world scenario in the controlled setting in the classroom. Simulating a complex conflict from the realm of international relations, participants form groups of “diplomats” (3–6 students) representing states and international organizations. Groups simulate the role of their respective actor and interact with other actors with the aim of fulfilling their set of objectives (“national interests”) utilizing a certain range of means. Interaction of actors is based on a fictional, yet realistic plot distributed to students before the game days.

Day 1 (3:30 hours): Introductory presentations. Students will get practical information about strategic gamings and negotiation skills (M. Mandl). The South China Sea dispute will be briefly introduced (A. Gerstl), and students will receive a comprehensive script about the background and key interests of the main actors to prepare for day 2. At the end of day 1, students will form actor groups, representing the key regional and external actors, namely ASEAN, China, US, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan. Depending on the number of students, additional groups can be formed (India, Australia, Russia, the EU …).

Day 2 (3:30 hours): The background of the South China Sea dispute will be explained in detail and the scenario for the two game days introduced (A. Gerstl).

Before the two game days, the country groups can meet on a voluntary base with the lecturers (2 and 3 May).

Game Days (11 and 12 May 2024): At the beginning of 11 May, each group will formulate certain aims and the means of reaching these aims based on each actor’s individual position in the conflict, the overall strategic situation in the Indo-Pacific and the scenario drafted in the plot. Groups will then be able to enter formal and informal bi- and multilateral negotiations to formulate a common agreement at a fictional ASEAN-organized meeting (taking place on both game days). Actors do not necessarily need to agree on a common solution but rather continuously aim at enforcing their own interests.

The main aims of the Strategic Gaming are:
- Gaining knowledge of the complex constellations in the South China Sea dispute, the overall security situation in East Asia and of the impacts of different conflicts on each other
- Acquiring a deeper understanding of the interests, positions and policies of the parties concerned
- Developing skills to enhance strategic thinking, acting and negotiating in complex negotiation situations.