230231 VO Introduction to Demographic Theories, Global Human Capital and Social Change (2021W)

This lecture provides an introduction to the principles and basic foundations of the discipline of demography. It will familiarize the participants with the history of demography as well as the basic concepts and approaches that distinguish demography from other social sciences. There will be a focus on genuine demographic theories that have predictive power. This will be illustrated in applications to the modelling and forecasting of global human capital (population structures by age, sex and level of education) as well as other structural social changes that happen primarily through inter-generational replacement. After successfully completing this course, the participants will be equipped with a sound foundation in demographic thinking and its application to many of the pressing issues of our times.
Contents:
It starts with a focus on concepts of cohort versus period analysis and introduces some basic demographic concepts and methods such as the life table. Next it will introduce three demographic theories that have predictive power, namely the theory of demographic metabolism, the theory of demographic transition and the theory of a demographic dividend. Examples and applications of all three theories will be given and the state of knowledge on the drivers of the global mortality and fertility declines will be discussed. The lecture will also cover trends in migration and human capital formation as well as the processes of changing population age structures. It will introduce different approaches to multi-dimensional population forecasting and illustrate them with alternative scenarios on world population and global human capital over the 21st century. It will conclude with considerations of population related policies.
Method(s):
Since this is a lecture course, most of the information will be communicated in the form of lectures. The content will to a large extent follow the new book Advanced Introduction to Demography by W. Lutz (to be published in September 2021). Other readings will be assigned at the beginning of the course. In every session there will also be question and answer sections as well as structured discussions.