Universität Wien

234001 SE Population Forecasting (2022W)

4.00 ECTS (2.00 SWS), SPL 23 - Soziologie
Continuous assessment of course work
ON-SITE

Registration/Deregistration

Note: The time of your registration within the registration period has no effect on the allocation of places (no first come, first served).

Details

max. 20 participants
Language: English

Lecturers

Classes (iCal) - next class is marked with N

On the last date the course takes place at UZA IIAdress: Josef Holaubek-Platz 2, 1090 WienMetro: Linie U4 und U6 (Station Spittelau)Tram: Linie D (Haltestelle Lichtenwerder Platz)Bus: Linien 35A/37A (Haltestelle Lichtenwerder Platz

  • Wednesday 05.10. 09:45 - 13:00 PC-Seminarraum 1 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Untergeschoß
  • Wednesday 12.10. 09:45 - 13:00 PC-Seminarraum 1 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Untergeschoß
  • Wednesday 19.10. 09:45 - 13:00 PC-Seminarraum 1 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Untergeschoß
  • Wednesday 09.11. 09:45 - 13:00 PC-Seminarraum 2 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Untergeschoß
  • Wednesday 16.11. 09:45 - 13:00 PC-Seminarraum 1 Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1 1.Untergeschoß
  • Wednesday 23.11. 09:45 - 13:00 EDV-Raum 4 2C502 5.OG UZA II

Information

Aims, contents and method of the course

This course is dedicated to population forecasting based on the R Statistical Software. Using simple examples from R, participants will first learn common techniques of data visualization that will proof helpful during the remainder of the course. After that, different prognostic techniques and their applications will be introduced. An essential aspect of the class will be the development of scenarios, which is key for any meaningful future projection. The main objective of the course is to improve the participants’ understanding of the evolution of population-based processes.

Assessment and permitted materials

Achievement of that goal will be assessed based on three criteria.

1. (Home) exercises (30%); to be completed partly in class, partly at home.
2. Population projections by age and sex to be submitted as a functioning R-code (50%). The goal of this task is to roughly replicate the results according to the UN World Population Prospects.
3. Classroom participation (20%)

Minimum requirements and assessment criteria

Participation is obligatory. Students may miss at most one class.
Grades will be based on the three tasks (exercises, projection code, participation)
All three are obligatory.

Examination topics

Reading list

Lutz, W., J. W. Vaupel, D. A. Ahlburg (1998): Frontiers of Population Forecasting. A Supplement to Population and Development Review, 1998, 24.

Keilman, N. W. (1990): Uncertanity in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. NIDI Working Paper. Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse 1990.

Keyfitz, N. The Limits of Population Forecasting. Population and Development Review, 1981, 7, 579-593.

O'Neill, Brian C., et al. "A guide to global population projections." Demographic Research 4 (2001): 203-288.

Association in the course directory

Last modified: Mo 03.10.2022 11:51