290057 VU Multi-hazard risk assessment (2020W)

The course introduces quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment, and discusses how the risk components (hazards, elements-at-risk and vulnerability) can be mapped and quantified, and how risk information can be used in risk reduction planning. The main focus of course is on the quantitative analysis of how risk changes, and how information on changing risk is used in decision making for disaster risk reduction. The course first addresses the hazard component, and focuses in particular on hydro-meteorological hazards, where an integrated physically-based modeling approach is presented (based on the OpenLISEM Hazard tool). Methods for mapping elements-at-risk and their main characteristics (e.g. land use, type, value, population) are discussed. Approaches for physical vulnerability assessment using different element-at-risk types are presented. Several methods for loss and risk assessment are presented, as well as a number of available tools. Different risk metrics are discussed. Risk evaluation is discussed and various approaches for risk reduction planning are treated, and the way these change the risk components. Risk reduction is calculated and various methods for comparing risk reduction alternatives are treated. Cost benefit analysis is explained as one of the tools to define which alternative is best, and other indicators are reviewed in a stakeholder workshop. The development of future scenarios is presented in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the methods for calculating risk for various future years. Finally, optimal combinations of risk reduction alternatives under future scenarios are treated.

This course is closely linked with the course 290061 UE Methods for analysing disaster risk assessment (2020W), which is given on the same day in the morning, and which contains the accompanying exercises, in which the methods are demonstrated using a tutorial dataset, using GIS tools